Covid forecast: more than 40,000 new infections next week

The increase in cases will also be noticeable in the number of hospitalizations, according to a forecast of 14 days, but with the usual delays. On February 1, more than 1,500 Covid patients must undergo hospital treatment – until the last time in mid-December. Yesterday, Tuesday, there were just over 1,000 people in hospital, so that’s an increase of about 50 percent in 14 days. However, if you look at January 27, you will find that it is still just over 1250.

245 ICU patients by February 1

As expected with the Omikron variant, the load on intensive care beds will be relatively less, and it is expected that there will be 245 patients by February 1, on Tuesday there were 197 just under 200, and this will be an increase of about 24 percent. It was different when the delta wave broke out in Austria: On October 22, there were still nearly 1,000 patients in hospital, and with 224 patients in intensive care at the time, the proportion was very similar to what it is now. Then, when the number of hospital patients rose to about 1,500 in just under two weeks, the number of intensive care beds rose about 75 percent to nearly 300 (292) by November 1.

In any case, the current coverage prediction assumes a reduction in omicron variant virulence compared to the delta variant of 80 percent in intensive care—and 75 percent in regular care, both due to the proportion of double vaccination and youngsters in the infection process. The transition between delta and omicron hospitalization rates follows the typical evolution of the relative proportions of the two variables.

On January 26, seven days are also expected in the range of 2,100 to 3,400 cases per 100,000 population (68 percent confidence interval). An estimate of 2600 is given as an average. With a 2.5 percent probability, seven days would be possible for more than 4,500, but also less than 1,500.

Salzburg and Tirol, which according to the AGES dashboard currently have a seven-day incidence of 2,344 and 2,406 respectively and are well above the Austrian average of 1,439, should be ahead at the end of the forecast period, but Vienna will then be second . The infection rate should be around 4,100 in Tyrol, the average infection rate in Vienna is 3,570, and Salzburg comes behind with about 3,300 cases. The Austrian average is then expected to be around 2,570.