Trump vs. Biden: Early decision in America

In the past, the presidential party’s losses were particularly heavy during periods of inflation. The inflation rate currently stands at a healthy eight percent, the highest since the 1970s. Pollsters expect at least a shift in power in the House of Representatives. Biden will have to reckon with an intensified blockade policy by Republicans — but he won’t be a “lame duck.” Because he can effectively rule by decree in the future. For example, Donald Trump used the tool of “executive order” to terminate the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement early in his presidency.

Biden’s loss will be Trump’s win

However, Biden’s defeat of the Democratic Party would be a victory for Donald Trump. He is still in control of the former Grand Old Party and has been able to decisively influence the election of Republican candidates. Successful midterms will give Trump extra motivation to run for another presidency.

However, he should not be president from the point of view of his party after a possible conviction for violating the anti-espionage law, for example, the way will be clear for the spirit of Trump’s brother: Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida. With him, American right-wing populism has a young, “charming” protagonist in the race for the White House.

The November 8 by-elections differ from all other mid-term elections in one fundamental way. Because since the storming of the Capitol in January 2021, it is clear that “Trumpism” does not recognize the basic principles of democracy, which above all apply to the peaceful transfer of power. Former Republican President George W. In Bush’s view, the movement embodied nothing more than the “pernicious forces” of domestic “extremism.”

If Trumpism gains additional momentum with a victory in the midterms, it will surely trigger two years of fear and panic, demanding law and order that will strengthen the extreme religious right — and further polarize an already divided American society. The mentality that we will not “steal” victory in the presidential elections in 2024 is already widespread among Republicans, threatening to become the mantra of the anti-democratic movement.

Both camps see Putin as a pariah

If Biden’s Democrats continue to benefit from economic recovery and lower inflation rates, a close election could come in two years. Then the Supreme Court will be called again. Even the last time Trump tried to maneuver his election loss into victory, the Supreme Court’s bastion is not as solid as it was.

For example, Justice Clarence Thomas told the Trump camp that they should further challenge Biden’s election victory. Today the Supreme Court rests firmly in the hands of Justices like Thomas. The conservative camp dominates liberals by three to six votes.

But no matter how much the results of the midterm elections shake the foundations of American democracy, domestic adversaries will continue to unite on foreign policy. As for China, the number one geopolitical competitor, Democrats and Republicans agree: Beijing’s influence must be curbed, both economically and politically. One can only hope that regional conflicts between Washington and Beijing, especially over the issue of Taiwan, will not escalate militarily.

Even rejecting “blank checks” in favor of Ukraine, there are no fundamental differences between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to Russia policy. After Vladimir Putin’s attack on the neighboring country, Trump’s appeasement policy towards Moscow has finally become a thing of the past.

Both camps see Putin as the bulwark of world politics. This is easy because Russia is unlikely to use its fossil-based business model to become a geo-economic competitor of the United States.

teachers:
Bert Rourup Chief Economist at Handelsblatt and Head of the Handelsblatt Research Institute. Michael Brackman is a journalist and oversees the Global Challenges series.

Further: What does Trump’s return mean?