Donald Trump is clearly trailing Kamala Harris in the national polls

National opinion polls boost Kamala Harris in the race for US President. However, the main role in US elections is played by swing states.

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has a nearly six percentage point lead over Donald Trump, according to a new national poll. According to a poll conducted by Ipsos and Reuters, Harris leads by 46.61 percent, compared to 40.48 percent for Trump. A clear lead for Harris at the national level. Tuesday's poll shows a trend continuing since Harris took over the leadership of Joe Biden's campaign. The Vice President has the momentum of the US elections on her side.

Compared to the poll conducted in mid-September, Harris was able to expand her lead. At that time, 47% of respondents voted for Harris and 42% for Trump. National polling is certainly useful as an indicator of the mood within the United States, but because of the US electoral system, US elections are decided in the states. Contested swing states in particular will be crucial in the November elections.

US Elections 2024: A close race in swing states between Harris and Trump

According to RealClearPolling, Trump is leading in three of the seven swing states – Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. Harris is currently leading in the remaining four states: Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. However, the polls are particularly close in swing states. Anyone who can win multiple states here in November has a good chance of winning the US election.

Note: A total of 1,029 eligible voters were interviewed for the survey. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

In the American electoral system, those eligible to vote do not directly elect the president. Each US state has electors, the so-called “Electoral College,” depending on the state’s population. If a candidate wins the election in Pennsylvania, for example, all 19 Electoral College votes go to the candidate who won the state. This means that a candidate can collect a greater number of absolute votes at the national level – and still lose the US elections. The last time this happened was in the 2016 US elections, when Hillary Clinton received a majority of votes but lost the election to Donald Trump.

Trump scores US campaign points on economy: Harris has some catching up to do here

According to American citizens, Trump's plus point is his skills in the field of economics. In an August poll, 45% said Trump had a better approach to the US economy. Only 36% of those surveyed said Harris has business skills, an 11 percentage point gap compared to Trump. In general, the American economy, along with immigration, is one of the most important issues that concerns citizens in the American election campaign. What's good for Harris: The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points a week ago to stimulate the economy.

In order to deny Harris' economic skills, Trump repeatedly called her a communist and Marxist, like her BBC He writes. Harris, on the other hand, has repeatedly described herself as a “capitalist” and advocates a pragmatic approach to strengthening the American middle class. At a campaign event at the Economic Club of Pittsburgh, the vice president said: “I promise you a practical approach.” Harris has the idea of ​​an “opportunity economy,” as she describes her plan. (sir)