Fewer and fewer people trust the results – DW – October 19, 2024

This is a new record: on Tuesday, October 15, the first day of “early voting” in the southern US state of Georgia, more than 310,000 voters have already cast their ballots. In America, the actual election day is not a Sunday or a holiday, but an ordinary Tuesday. Long queues are seen in front of polling booths on that day. If you don't have time to stand in line for hours to vote on Election Day, you can do so in most states a few weeks before the Nov. 5 presidential election.

In Georgia, more than twice as many people voted on the first day of early voting in the last presidential election. Georgia's Board of Elections – the authority responsible for conducting the election – election workers will be busy counting votes after November 5. The company announced a rule in its state at the end of September Votes should be counted by hand and not by machine.

That will take too long, said Janelle King, one of the five members of the Board of Elections. But she doesn't want the company to “value speed over accuracy.”

Who is better – man or machine?

The idea that a human can calculate better and more accurately than a machine may seem obvious to some. But that doesn't apply for one simple reason, says Rachel Cobb, a political science professor at Suffolk University in Boston. “People make mistakes, that's human nature. Machines make mistakes sometimes, but we can test the devices, check them and fix what led to the error,” Cobb told DW. He examines the conduct of elections and related administration. In general, people make more mistakes because, unlike machines, they tire at some point, says Cobb.

A judge would have seen it that way Stop counting your hands on Tuesday. Justice Robert McBurney justified his ruling by saying that no training was designed for election workers, and a change in practice too close to an election would cause confusion. In Georgia, votes will be counted by machine as usual in the upcoming presidential election.

USA: Confidence in the Legitimacy of Elections is Declining

The back-and-forth highlights a problem that has plagued America for years: Fewer and fewer Americans believe that everything is going well in democratic elections in their country. One Survey conducted by Gallup polling firm from September 2024 It was found that 19 percent of all participants had no confidence in the legitimacy of the election or the legitimacy of the election results. In 2004 the figure was still six percent. Pessimism is high among Republicans — only 28 percent believe the election will go well. In 2020, that number was 44 percent, and four years ago, when Donald Trump defeated Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, 55 percent of Republicans believed in a fair and legitimate election.

“If your candidate wins, you assume everything went right in the election,” says Cobb.

Confidence in the Republican Party has dropped significantly since 2020 because Trump and his supporters are convinced that the 2020 election was “stolen” from him. They say Trump lost his rightful victory by fudging the results. These conspiracy theories have been debunked by meticulous recounts and multiple court rulings, but Trump continues to refuse to admit that he lost.

Trump supporters make up the majority of Georgia's caucuses

Three members of Georgia's five-member electoral commission are among the Trump loyalists who continue to support this election lie. The majority could be crucial in November in a state hotly contested between Trump and his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris. Four years ago, Georgia was one of the states where the results were so close, there was so much controversy, and Republicans insisted on a recount before the results were certified. The Board of Elections has been significantly involved in these processes — and since May of this year has been made up of a majority of Trump supporters.

There is no evidence, but Cobb suspects the three-member effort to introduce hand counts may be a political ploy. “To say that the system used so far is bad and needs to be changed urgently, even if the new system is not better, sows pessimism,” says the political scientist.

After the court order, counting will now be done by machine as before. But reports from the Board of Elections cast doubt on the results in Georgia — especially if the numbers are against Donald Trump.

Georgia's Electoral Authority and Influence on Election Results

Could a pro-Trump agency responsible for counting and certifying a state's election results influence the outcome of an entire presidential election? “If the lead is large, it is impossible for the loser to get the required number of votes even on recount. [eine mehrheitlich Trump-freundliche Behörde] “It doesn't matter,” says Cobb.

But Georgia is a swing state, meaning a state where Democrats and Republicans take turns winning, with Democrats winning by just 0.2 percentage points in 2020 under Joe Biden. If the outcome of Georgia's election ultimately decides whether Harris or Trump enters the White House — and it hasn't been ruled out — it could be exciting.

Past elections have shown that in any case there will be people in the population who do not trust the official final result. Elections in America are generally organized, says Cobb. “Election workers work hard to ensure that everything goes smoothly on Election Day,” he asserts. “There are many laws in this country that ensure that all voters' identities are verified, their votes are counted, and that voter intent is reflected in the results.”