U.S. stocks have outperformed stock markets in “the rest of the world” for years — but the U.S. faces an uncomfortable decade, Reinhard Bahnsen, founder of Finvia’s family office, says in a video.Work is money“. “If you look at all the data, things are going to be uncomfortable for America over the next 10 years. It can make you a little confused,” says Bahnsen.
America: Outlook for Debt, Dollar and US Stocks
Because not only are valuations in the U.S. twice as high as other markets, but the U.S. Federal Reserve is raising interest rates too much and pushing the U.S. economy into recession. Because unemployment in the U.S. is still low (as it usually is at the start of a recession), the Fed wants to keep raising rates — but the impact of rate hikes can be severe, Bahnsen said. Because the debt burden and subsequent impact on the dollar will become a major problem for the US economy – and thus for US stocks.
In general, according to Bahnson, central banks react too late to inflation — and try to make up for the mistake by raising interest rates further in an already weakened economy to show they are serious about fighting inflation.
This applies above all to the ECB, which is repeating a mistake it has already made three times: it will keep raising interest rates even though the eurozone economy is already in recession.
Nevertheless, European stocks will grow better than stocks in the U.S. over the next few years, according to Banson. Rumen with spectacularly clear statements about “illusory growth” in China.
Timeline for the video:
00:00 Introduction
01:29 Nothing Learned: Central Banks Get Everything Wrong
16:45 America’s Troubles: The National Debt Conundrum
22:50 That’s why America is a decade behind
37:05 Why Europe is in better shape now
42:00 How Japan failed and why China will do the same
50:00 This is why China is not completely dependent on us, and the democratic factor is critical to economic success
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