How Covid-19 could become a childhood disease

In the next few years, when SARS-CoV-2 spreads among the world’s population to a lesser extent, Covid-19 is supposed to behave like other cold coronaviruses and infect especially children who have not yet come into contact with the virus and who have not. been vaccinated.

Researchers at the University of Oslo have used a mathematical model to study what the burden of disease caused by Covid-19 will look like in eleven different countries over the next 10-20 years. The findings suggest that younger children are more likely to contract the disease in the future, while adults are immune to surviving vaccinations or infections. The results of the study were published in the journal Science Advances.

Scientists have found that in addition to the duration of immunity, about which we do not yet know enough, the way the Covid-19 virus will behave in the future also depends largely on the age structure and mobility of the population. With a long-term immunity of ten years, the model predicts that the highest rates of infection will occur among young adults. However, this expectation applies only if the renewed infection is easy.

The situation is different if immunity to a new infection declines more quickly. Then, while there is some protection against the severe course, the outbreak is likely to recur. Study leader Ottar N. Bjørnstad explained: “The results of the research show that vaccination provides stronger protection against infection with SARS-CoV-2, so we encourage everyone to receive the vaccination as soon as possible.”

these: DOI 10.1126 / sciadv.abf9040