Iran is backing down significantly in the Middle East conflict: what could be behind it?

“No evidence of actual improvement.”

According to him, one should be careful with all these reports, especially when it comes to local political promises: “The police have already announced that they want to continue violent hijab searches. When it comes to Internet freedom, there is no evidence that there will actually be any improvements.

Peshekian's brief remarks will be interpreted in the West as if he really wanted to take action, says Fathollahnejad: “If he wants to ease the internet ban or restrict moral policing, he may not be able to do it because there are higher measures.” Powers. The president does not decide on these issues that have to do with the identity of the regime, but the question is also whether he really wants to.

Bad economic situation

The reports, as well as the release of the imprisoned Austrian, are likely part of an apparent mission from Pesishkian, which is also supported by Ali Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards: “They want to seek an understanding with the West in order to achieve relaxation.” Tehran maintains this because of the empty situation in which state coffers are absolutely necessary to stabilize the regime.

The United States has already made clear to Iran that if there is a retaliatory strike against Israel, an agreement with Tehran will become out of reach.

Regarding the declared willingness to renegotiate a smaller nuclear agreement, Fath Allahinejad points to at least two secret meetings between Iranian and American representatives this year, and there are always indirect talks. Even if it is no longer possible to “revive” the agreement concluded in 2015, it is possible to envision some kind of “understanding”: “whereby Iran initially freezes its nuclear program and receives sanctions relief in return.”

An understanding with the United States is “possible” – if Harris becomes president

There is clear interest from the Iranian side in such an agreement, and Khamenei will also support it. Democratic victory Kamala Harris In November Presidential elections in the United States of America Not the former Republican president Donald Trumpwhich withdrew from the old nuclear deal in 2018, the chances of reaching a “mini-deal” would not be bad – even if it is likely only temporary.

The arms shipments to Russia that have become known do not fit into this Western-Iranian strategy, due to which the European Union countries imposed new sanctions on Iran two weeks ago. According to Fathollahnejad, these reports are viewed critically in Iran. According to speculation, the Kremlin may have published these matters in order to make rapprochement between the West and Iran more difficult.