Lockdown: Popper sees a ‘too expensive metric’ that should work

The simulation researcher sees this as a “too expensive metric”, and by no means only in economic terms Nikki Popper In the recent nationwide shutdown. He said on Friday that this “would and should work because it really is the ‘finishing rate’.” what or what. However, the vaccination quota must eventually be increased, procedures must already be implemented and nationwide PCR testing resources established in order to get through the winter without further disruption.

Perhaps the first effects could be seen in the middle of next week – although “pre-emptive effects” will be responsible. Because a lot of people have pulled out of their monopolistic behavior in the past few days. Next week, Popper said, “the direction in which the train is now going can already be seen.”

The most important question is whether the momentum is declining

Actual efficacy can be assessed seven to nine days after initiation of closure. The most important question is “whether the dynamism really goes down fast enough”. In contrast to “low incidence management”, the shutdown relates to the fact that the current numbers of infections, but especially those in intensive care units, are “reducing really quickly and dramatically.” Only this can justify the current social commitment.

With the very costly lockdown “psychologically, socially and economically” you have to think carefully about your goals. “With numbers as high as we are now, of course, we’re interested in the absolute number.” However, if there are fewer new infections, it becomes more interesting “how quickly that number is going down,” Popper says. If, for example, at the end of the shutdown, daily values ​​have fallen by about ten percent or more, “from a dynamic point of view, this is more important to us.” It is therefore important to find the right balance between ‘long enough’ and ‘not too long’.

Emergency shutdown solutions

It is clear that the “shutdown” emergency solution, associated with the “exorbitant costs”, only works as long as it lasts,” Popper asserts: “Vaccination is still the most important thing.” More should happen, especially with the first and second vaccinations. In terms of basic immunization, Austria still lags behind many other countries. “If we can’t do that with vaccination, we will face the current situation again.” Popper cannot assess whether the declared mandatory vaccination will achieve the desired results.

However, essential vaccinations in particular relieve ICUs in the long term, because the severe course is largely prevented. This will be very important for the months of February and March. Booster vaccines work quickly and are now directly contributing to improvement. It is significant for the first quarter of 2022 as it reduces the spread dynamics.