Macron should fear for the majority in the parliamentary elections

48 million French people were invited to vote, and 572 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly are still waiting to be seized. In the first round last Sunday, only five candidates obtained the necessary absolute majority of votes in their constituencies. Run-off elections were held in all other constituencies.

A majority in the previous government opposes a broad coalition of leftist former presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, which also includes the Socialists and the Greens. The electoral alliance between the left and the right has recently increased in the opinion polls, and thus it had prospects from 140 to 200 seats.

In terms of the vote share, Macron’s coalition was tied to the Left coalition on the first ballot. However, the majority voting system favors the strongest electoral alliance when it comes to the distribution of seats. So Macron’s coalition can hope to secure 255-305 seats. 289 would be needed for an absolute majority. Without them, Macron will have to rely on opposition voices in his reform plans.

Election day has already begun with a setback for the president’s camp. On the Caribbean island of Guadeloupe, where elections have already taken place on Saturday, as in some overseas territories, Macron’s Secretary of State for Maritime Affairs, Justine Benin, lost to the leftist candidate. You probably won’t be part of the government in the future.

15 current members of the government are also threatened with defeat in their constituencies – and, according to an unwritten rule, by losing their government positions. They included Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, Environment Minister Amelie de Montchalin, and Secretary of State for Europe Clement Bonn.

Macron cast his vote at midday in Le Touquet, in the north of the country. Melenchon, who himself has not run for a seat in Parliament, voted in Marseille this morning. Right-wing populist Marine Le Pen arrived at her polling station in North Henin-Beaumont around the same time.

Le Pen’s party, Le Pen’s party, can form its first parliamentary group with as few as 15 deputies. The former party FN was last able to do so in 1986. Opinion polls saw right-wing populists take 20 to 45 seats. The size of the group should also reach conservative Republicans.

Polling stations are open until at least 6 p.m., in major cities until 8 p.m. If elections are too close, the exact distribution of seats in the National Assembly will not be known until late at night.