The classic cold-temperature constellation is called the occult layer. There is an elevation in northern Germany. If it is in the northwest, the polar air is brought from the north to Germany on the front. Farther to the east, air from the east comes to Germany. But it is also cool, especially in the spring.
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Currently, the Hoch Queen accurately describes such a movement from northwest to northeast. The first cold air came to Germany. In the next few days it will be a little warmer but not warm either.
After the queen comes the high barrier
Next week, another high pressure area is supposed to develop between the British Isles and Iceland. Depending on the location and size of the summit, the cold to cold air returns to Germany.
A tropical anomaly favoring north exposure
This blocking height is associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is a precipitation anomaly at tropical latitudes. MJO is a region of increasing convection that moves during a cycle of 30 to 60 days from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific and sometimes even the Atlantic Ocean.
Through a statistically visual coupling, it is known that occlusion states in Europe are favored by MJO in the eastern Pacific or western Atlantic. Depending on the length of the cycle, it can be inferred that this is the case about 5 to 15 days after the presence of MJO in the western Pacific.
Great prospects for the end of April
MJO is currently located in the western Pacific Ocean with strong capacity. Model calculations show it made headway in the Eastern Pacific around April 22. And that also has a strong capacity. The stronger the capacity, the more masking position will be supported.
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So the warm air masses from southern Europe would not initially advance far to the north. This only occurs when the pressure zone clicks on the air masses in the south – that is, when facing south or southwest. However, due to the increased solar irradiance, the air masses generally warm up. Later in the year, the cooler air was much warmer.
Polar vortices and MJO bring in cool air
Another special feature is the polar vortex last time this year. It usually melts in what is called a final warming in mid-April. But this year is still extraordinarily strong, and the temperature is expected to rise just two weeks after the climate average.
Besides putting on blocking, if the vortex collapses, there could be another strong advance of cold air as far as Germany. But the same applies here: the air masses are no longer as cold as they are in the winter. It will then get colder, but there will be no freezing cold.
Due to obstructions and the late collapse of the polar vortex, this year it looks like the cold air will continue to make its way to Germany again and again. It is possible that Ice Saints will be applied again.
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The original version of this post “Polar Vortices and Tropical Weather Events Spring Mass: What Warm Weather Misses” comes from The Weather Channel.