The prognosis: Macron aligned and left in the parliamentary elections on an equal footing

According to initial projections, both alliances are about 25 percent nationwide. However, the percentages are of little importance.

President Emmanuel’s Liberal Alliance Macron And that of left-wing politicians Jean-Luc Melenchon The leadership of the opposition coalition approaches in the French parliamentary elections on Sunday. This is shown by the first predictions published by television stations after the closing of the elections at 8 pm. According to this, both alliances were about 25 percent nationwide.

However, the percentages are negligible because 577 parliamentary seats are filled according to the first-past-the-post system. According to estimates by several institutes, Macron’s alliance can achieve from 255 to 310 mandates, and the left alliance from 150 to 210 mandates. So far, the president can count on an absolute majority in the National Assembly. It will likely be known if he can defend them in the second round of parliamentary elections next Sunday, when run-off elections will be held in most constituencies.

“For the first time, a re-elected president does not win a majority in a general election,” Melenchon said. Senior representatives of the Left Alliance indicated that they had qualified for the run-off in about 500 constituencies. This means that the race for the majority is still open. The new coalition includes leftists, communists, greens and socialists. Mélenchon’s “Indomitable France” party is likely to win about half of the seats.

Right-wing populists Luban She said she will be in the runoff next Sunday in her constituency in Henin Beaumont. Your right-wing nationalist party National Assembly Expectations came to about 19 percent, but only ten to 45 states could count due to the ostracism of other parties. However, Le Pen called her party’s performance a “tremendous victory” and called for President Macron’s camp to be denied an absolute majority in the run-off election.

And the strongest opposition force to date, the conservative Republicans, fell, with allies to just 11 to 14 percent or 40 to 80 seats. The voter turnout was estimated at 53 percent.

Despite his dissatisfaction with his first term in office, Macron took advantage of the fact that the parliamentary elections in France served as a confirmation of the presidential election. In particular, supporters of the winner participate in the vote, while others often remain at home.

For Macron, the issue in the parliamentary elections is whether he will be able to carry out his plans in his second term. These are, for example, controversial pension reform, purchasing power aid in a crisis and urgently needed improvements in education and health care. The liberal also wants to focus more on environmental policy, but above all wants to move forward with the expansion of nuclear as well as renewable energies. For all this needs a majority in Parliament. The second chamber, the Senate, is less important than the National Assembly and is currently a conservative.

If the votes are only enough for a relative majority, the president and government will have to seek support from the other camps. There will likely then be a minority government that will try to rely on center-left or center-right forces, depending on the project.