The three scenarios in the power struggle Lachit against Soder

The first scenario: Lashet insists on running, Soder resigns.

Heard from CDU will not Laschet will not buckle. If he insists on running and Söder continues to surrender, the Bavarian must clarify who sees the responsibility in the event of losing the election: with Laschet.

But first and foremost, Lachette, who is still far behind in the polls, will have to appease the insecure party base. Among the members of the Christian Democratic Union in the Bundestag, Söder’s fans in particular fear a popular uprising if the president and the “foundation” – the governing body and board of directors – do not follow the will of the members and supporters. Many CDU representatives were bombarded with letters from local assemblies and associations threatening to leave the party or boycott the election campaign if Söder did not become a candidate. Are Laschet’s reconciliatory traits proven time and time again enough to prevent riots?

The man from Nuremberg has more to lose than the man from Aachen. Soder can also win in case of defeat: his image as a sturdy dog ​​shouldn’t hurt at home. Nor did many in the Christian Democratic Union prefer him as a candidate. On the other hand, Söder made opponents of several senior CDU members this week.

Scenario 2: Laschet succumbs to grassroots pressure, and Soder becomes a candidate.

Not only are CDU members of parliament who fear their mandate, but also experienced CDU insiders believe winning the election will be easier with Soder. Lashit was badly injured. The Bavarian could better motivate activists. Especially with the offspring from the Junge union, most of them lean toward Söder anyway. On the other hand: After this week, the advisory mission will also be fraught with many additional risks for Söder’s candidate.

But Lachette and nearly all of the CDU’s closest leadership circle – so believe some who have been with the party for so long – must pack up if they don’t win against Soder. The head of the Christian Democratic Union, who was elected only in January after a long struggle, insisted on running for a long time. Many greats publicized it very intensely – from German Bundestag President Wolfgang Schaeuble to Prime Minister Hesse Volker Bouvier to numerous state presidents. Not to mention the fact that the elected governing bodies of the CDU would be incapable if one came to the polls and the demands of the grassroots, which are considered more conservative than the party leadership.

Scenario Three: Lachette and Soder do not agree.

It was envisioned in the union that Laschet could hold a special meeting of the board of directors on Monday to vote on the K issue. Open Exit. It would be a kind of vote of confidence: if he lost, he would likely be so damaged that the CDU could look for a new president right away.

Voting in the parliamentary group will also be possible. For several days, signatures were collected from Söder’s supporters there in order to force the parliamentary group to vote, possibly on Tuesday. But do they both make a difference? Both parties warn of the risk of a greater split. As before, the following applies: In the election campaign, one party depends on the other, and one party depends on the other.

The problem: After Merkel and Cole’s long-time advisers, there is no procedure for how to determine the common candidate for the position of chancellor. Should voting always take place in the future parliamentary group, which is the only joint body? In a new body, only for a question K? Or through a survey of the members? The current situation informs us: If a smaller CSU has a good candidate, this should not be a defect even if all union members are cleared.

But first and foremost, the CDU and the Christian Social Union must somehow end the current crisis – although there is no longer any talk of a good ending. They say the damage is already massive. in both cases.