Why is US President Biden cautious about Israel?

Israel's prime minister cares little about US President Biden's criticism – even though America's support is vital to Israel. Why doesn't Biden have much influence over Netanyahu?

When Joe Biden was asked if he still had influence over Benjamin Netanyahu, his response sounded pleading, almost desperate: “No American government has ever helped Israel more than I have — nothing, nothing, nothing,” Biden says, adding: “'Bibi has to. Remember that.”

“Bibi” is Netanyahu's common nickname. When asked if he was also concerned about Israel's response to the Iranian missile attack, Biden's response at the White House last Friday: “Our advisers are communicating twelve hours a day. The Israelis have every right to respond to acts of evil. The attacks are reacting — not just the Iranians, but also Hezbollah and others, but they Civilians should be very careful about casualties.

Reminders are repeated

Biden has been repeating this warning for months. In theory, the US president would have options to put more pressure on Israel, says Middle East expert Aaron David Miller, formerly of the US State Department and now of the Carnegie Foundation. Biden could slow, condition or end US arms exports. He may have decisively changed America's pro-Israel voting behavior at the UN Security Council in New York. But, says Miller: “He didn't do anything.”

Why? First, Miller says, Biden has had an emotional connection to Israel for decades. Second, Biden is adamant that a ceasefire can only be achieved if he doesn't screw things up completely with Netanyahu.

The Domestic politics Dimension

There is a domestic political turmoil, especially in a US election year. On the one hand, there were months of protests from the Democrats' left wing, Muslim voters and, above all, students.

On the other side is the important pro-Israel voter base. No American president can break with Israel. During the election campaign, Donald Trump has been pressuring people to support Israel more. According to Republicans, Biden seems weak, especially when it comes to Iran.

A pattern repeats itself

In the end, Richard Haas insists that Biden has always maintained his support for Israel “through weapons, through intelligence sharing.” What has been happening for months with regard to the Gaza Strip – the US calls for moderation, Israel escalates – is now being repeated in the cases of Lebanon and Iran.

“America's influence is very limited,” Haas said on NPR radio — even more so now that public opinion is divided in Israel over Gaza and hostages, united over Lebanon and Iran. American influence remains limited because Biden is a “lame duck” just before the end of his term.

He cheated again and again

During the summer months, Biden brought America's full diplomatic weight to bear on the balance, sending Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and CIA Director William Burns countless times to the Middle East region to avoid further escalation — and avoid further trouble. Campaign and Vice President Kamala Harris. Netanyahu has cheated on Biden many times.

“I see no basis for a diplomatic solution because the interests of the parties to the conflict do not overlap,” says Richard Haas. This applies to the Gaza Strip, Lebanon and the Israel-Iran conflict. Haas doesn't believe in the oft-quoted maxim, “It's got to get worse before it gets better.” His rule in the Middle East region: “It usually gets worse before it gets worse.”