Will a “lost” asteroid hit Earth in 2024? NASA reacts

Data shows that asteroid 2007 FT3 may collide with Earth in October 2024. Why is NASA still giving the all clear?

WASHINGTON, D.C. – An asteroid known since 2007 is causing a stir because it could hit Earth in early October 2024. This is what the data shows NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS). But the data is deceptive: It shows that asteroid 2007 FT3 is likely to hit Earth, but with a very low probability. So the probability of 2007 FT3 colliding with Earth in October 2024 is 1 in 11.5 million (0.0000087 percent).

If that happened, the asteroid would release energy equivalent to 2.6 billion tons of TNT. This would cause significant regional damage, but would not cause a global catastrophe. But an asteroid collision is unlikely to happen, as NASA confirms.

Will asteroid 2007 FT3 hit Earth in October 2024? NASA is reassured

Compared to Britain shortening A NASA spokesperson said: “It is not known that Earth will be threatened by asteroid impacts in the next century. NASA and its partners carefully monitor the skies to find, track and classify asteroids and near-Earth objects (NEOs), including those that could come close to Earth.

2007 FT3 is a “missing” asteroid that will miss Earth

In fact, there have been several times in the past that, according to calculations, the asteroid could have collided with Earth, but it did not. October 2, 2013 and October 3, 2019 passed without an asteroid impact, and October 2024 will likely pass without 2007 FT3 colliding with Earth. There's a reason for that: The asteroid was only observable for about a day after its discovery on March 20, 2007. After that, it was never seen again, glowing very faintly. Since then, 2007 FT3 has been considered a “lost” asteroid.

Due to the lack of observational data for the asteroid, the calculation of its orbit is not very accurate. The inaccuracy can also be measured: it is plus or minus 500 million kilometers, so it is very likely that the asteroid will miss Earth significantly in October 2024.

Potential asteroid impact calculated for 2030

Another possible collision between the asteroid and Earth has been calculated in March 2030 – the probability of collision is 1 in 10 million (0.0000096 percent). But the same applies here: the effect is unlikely. It is possible that the asteroid could be rediscovered at this point, and the calculation could then be improved.

There haven't been any major asteroid impacts in a long time, and most recently, the asteroid that exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia, caused a huge uproar in February 2013. The asteroid came from the direction of the sun at the time, so it was not detected in advance and came without warning.

NASA and the European Space Agency want to be prepared in case a large asteroid actually threatens Earth. Therefore, the American authorities tested the deflection of an asteroid using the Dart space probe. This year, the European Commission is sending the Hera space probe to analyze the effects. The data should be used for planetary defense. (unpaid bill)